As Investor Do I Flip or Hold in this Market

Do you remember 2004 run up till 2006 and then the crash of 2008. Lessons learned here show that holding on a market that is
upticking greater than 5-6% per year for more than 3 years has a tendency to correct every 5-7 years. The trick is to understand the market dynamics.
This year even with Covid we will probably see a 10% incline in prices with a 35 plus % shortage of inventory. The prior year was a 10% increase as well. As of right now there are probably 3 buyers for every home on the market and most homes getting multiple offers..  The Anticipation is that 2021 will follow suit as well. The driving force as you know is interest rates.   But as rates start to increase the volume of buyers starts to decrease and thus inventory starts to climb. By 2022 the shift will begin and inventory will climb to the point that by the end of 2022 we will see a more balanced buyer/seller market. But by 2023 the tipping point starts as inventory exceed the demand by buyers and the prices start to erode.
The key is to see where you are in the position of the market. If it’s a Sellers market and you are at the beginning of the rise..good to hold for 4-5 years max but if you’re half way through the cycle its flip time. Trying to sell in a buyers market has a 3-5% cost of depreciated value and the 6% cost of selling.
Timing the market is everything. But if you get a great deal and hold with a long term tenant just keep in mind the cycle of sell timing can cost you. The trick is to hold a minimum of 15 years to cover depreciation and tax liability.
One of the best strategies to increase your income momentum and reduce tax liability is to try to do lease purchase agreements with your tenants. Offer a 15% of Lease towards closing costs and exercise the option after 5 years. You would get a tenant who would take care of the property and probably get the market price as well. The key is to try to pay off during that time period and the income coming in once its a mortgage to you would probably be 75% of the rent amount with no head aches. The worst that could happen is maybe they default after  5-7 years and the market is back on a swing and you can sell at a high appreciation.
So hold in a Buyers market and flip in a sellers market but only in the early years of that market. History repeats itself every 7 years and figure out where you are in the cycle to make your best decision.